It will get colder. More Pacific Northwest football games will be played in mud. Many leaves will fall. And some Democrats. But not as many as people think.
In my Page (the non-Post entries on my blog), I warned that I like reading polls. If you think polls are about as reliable as Rorschach blots, you can move right along. The next post is going to be about self-respect and may be more a rant than a sober analysis. If you think there is useful information in polls, come along and look at the New York Times/CBS Poll of September 10--14.
Sometimes I get all systematic about analyzing polls, but that's not the way I'm feeling today. I'll just breeze through and give you some of the results and play with them a little. You can download the entire poll by using the hyperlink in yesterday's New York Times.
Since the previous poll in August, the number of people disapproving the way Obama is handling his job as president has gone up and the number approving has gone down. "Approve" is now under 50% at 45%, although the number disapproving is also under 50%. The number of respondents who answered "don't know" or who had no answer at all (the category is labeled DK/NA) is lower than it has ever been since they started asking this question. The "I'm not sure" position is getting squeezed out. It now stands at 8%.
This question is a good question. I don't have any negative criticism of it at all. Still, I would love to know what the respondent’s think Obama's "job" is. Is it "making things better?" Is it "caring deeply and personally that people are still hurting?" Is it "making sure that however things are, the blame for those bad things can be assigned to someone else?"
About a third of the respondents think "things in this country" have "gotten pretty seriously off track." The alternative, by the way, is "are generally going in the right direction." Following my post on euphemisms and dysphemisms, I would think that the phrasing "pretty seriously off track" would be attractive today--just the phrasing--while "going in the right direction" would not be. The good thing about these polls is that they ask the same questions in the same way every time, so it is safe to compare them. The percentage of people who think things are going in the right direction has not been above 40% since September of last year.
Things are worse for the Congress, of course. Only 21% of the respondents believe Congress is "handling its job," although there is, again, the question of what the job of the Congress really is. There is no question that passing healthcare legislation has taken most of their time, attracted most of the ink, and probably fewer photons than would be required to give a good account to TV watchers. Given that use of their time, it is worth noting that 49% of the respondents disapprove ("somewhat" or "strongly") of the healthcare law, while only 37% approve (also combining "somewhat" and "strongly") The 49% who disapproved, were asked if the law should be repealed. Nearly all(about 80%) of the 49% said it should be repealed.
What does that mean? The next poll question asked if the respondents would be more or less likely to vote for a congressional candidate who supported the reforms--this would include incumbents, who have a recorded vote and challengers, who do not. Some said they would be more likely to support such a candidate (28%), some would be less likely (28%) and some said it would make no difference at all (41%). Is it just really cool to live in a democracy or what?
Still, odd as it may seem with all the anti-incumbent rhetoric, it is better to be a Democrat than a Republican. "Approve of the way Democrats in Congress are handling their job (38%)" matches up pretty well with "Approve of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job (20%). The disapprovals are (Dems) 58% and (Reps) 68%. The opinion of the Democratic party in general is not favorable (45% favorable to 48% unfavorable. But Democrats run, mostly, against Republicans and the opinion of the Republican party is even worse (34% favorable to 56% unfavorable).
If you push beyond favoring the Democrats in general, you find it is echoed in most policy areas. Who has better ideas for solving the nation's problems? Democrats (40% to 33%). Who is more likely to make the right decisions on immigration? Democrats (40% to 38%). Create new jobs? Democrats (44% to 38%). Help the middle class? Democrats (55% to 33%). Help small businesses? Democrats (49% to 41%). The single issue the Republicans win is that they are more likely to reduce the federal budget deficit (42% to 34%). This, with the Bush-era deficits, is amazing, but there it is. The Republicans are getting credit for protesting Democratic deficits and they are not being blamed for their own deficits. It's odd, but then it's politics.
Still, odd as it may seem, when you ask the anti-incumbent question directly, only 34% believe their own congressional representative, the incumbent, deserves to be re-elected. The percentage who feel that "a new person" should be elected is up to a historic high at 55%. The "new person" question in 1994, when the Republicans took over both houses of Congress, was only 53%. And where is Newt Gingrich today? On the other hand, a lot of voters are going to say that they favor "a new person" in general, but that they don't know enough about the particular new person in their own district, to vote for him or her. So questions that put "this particular person" up against "any new person" aren't very helpful in any one district.
There is so much more, but I've had my fun for today. And only another month and a half until election day. Woohoo!
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